U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Strategic Implications for Pakistan

Abstract

The withdrawal of the United States military presence in Afghanistan in August 2021 ended this war after twenty years and changed the strategical landscape of the region of South and central Asia drastically. The demise of the Afghanistan government and the subsequent swift rise of the Taliban to power left a kind of geopolitical vacuum that has had an immense effect on Pakistan who happens to be an immediate neighbour and a significant powerhouse in the region. Pakistan, being historically related to the country of Afghanistan and having security interests in the region, is now exposed to the complicated picture of challenges and opportunities. This paper explores the strategic implication of the U.S. withdrawal on Pakistan based on the following four central dimensions: security, foreign policy, economic stability, and regional power relations. It examines the emergence of militant threats in the form of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the escalated flow of high-level of weaponry into Pakistani borders, as well as by the continued pressure of an emergent influx of Afghan refugees. The paper also reviews the changing foreign relations of Pakistan, especially its deteriorating relationship with the United States and the growing relationship with China, Russia and other regional groups, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).On the economic side, the study analyses how regional instability has derailed development of connectivity plans including the TAPI pipeline and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), along with the trade with Central Asia. It also examines how the Pakistani-India rivalry has changed with the dynamics of Afghanistan at the political level. In the aggregation of policy studies, scholarly articles and regional data, this paper reached a conclusion that U.S. pullout offers Pakistan both the prospects of regional interaction and strategic re-calibration but also risks due to increased internal and external risk factors. It is not going to take a simplified measure to solve them but a weighted solution to combine security improvements, diplomatic flexibility and longevity of regional solution.